A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in academia but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. Each writes two articles that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to learn from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
