Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: optimistic declarations are issued from different nations. Significant resources is devoted on containing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from Russian territory, a capacity provided through timely intelligence. From observation points, defense planes that had been deployed to counter approaching cruise missiles streaked across the sky – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: multiple launches targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably delivered by partner states. Every launch shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: maybe the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – probably Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: seven people killed, damage and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a need that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to replace in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from US administration provoked deep reactions, debate and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from American administration adheres to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, certainly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame certain parties of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington operates on a premise familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House assumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does little to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from thinking that the situation will not shift further in its advantage in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding civilians and areas but preventing a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: political desires to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not switch to internal issues. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to kill the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new plans based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
